It was two months prior that the Villa attacker stood on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered as his coach berated him over failing to anticipate a pass in behind. Back then, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, the question was if Rogers' form were a symptom or the reason of Villa's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, in contrast, the manager's outburst was decidedly more positive. After Rogers drilled in his brace-sealing goal to restore Villa's lead, Emery ripped off his jacket, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club continued to ten wins in a row , having failed to win their initial half-dozen games, are somehow a mere three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Title Contenders?
That’s a particularly tough proposition to resolve. The historical record, the perceived status of this institution, suggests not. Moreover, their performances haven't been wholly dominant this season, while the positive results have accumulated.
As per Opta, on just two occasions has the side had an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a club which has strung together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans seem curiously susceptible – yet at the moment the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic looks like to engage in a shootout with an opponent and wait for their talisman to bail them out with some precise efforts. This was the case at Leeds, it transpired in London, and again when facing the Red Devils.
His opener originated from a superb shot, arced just inside the post from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of the opener capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. Against United, Manchester United managed a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge Villa will encounter in the near future. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot maintain drilling his shots into the top corner week in, week out.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is a different scenario whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures could still find their top level.
- The main striker may begin to scoring again.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the performer he showed in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to come back from the treatment room, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable backline.
This could contain the possibility for a sustained push, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt back in October, nobody thought the midfielder now would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while looking like an essential Three Lions star.
This winning streak must be cherished precisely because it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner faced the home supporters after the match leading the celebrations, it was clear to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These runs of form do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.
